TVB Revises 2009 Forecast
New York, Nov. 11, 2008 — The Television Bureau of Advertising today re-issued its 2009 forecast for the local broadcast television industry. It was only the second time the trade association has revisited a forecast; the first time came after the 2002 forecast was rendered inoperative by the World Trade Center attacks six days after it was issued.
TVB now forecasts that Total Spot TV revenues in 2009 will decline between 7%-11% in comparison with this year’s revenues, with Local Spot revenue in a range of -4.0 to -8.0 and National Spot declining by 11.5% to 15.5%.
The full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:
New Forecast Old Forecast*
Local Spot -4.0 to -8.0% +2.0 to -1.0%
National Spot -11.5 to -15.5% -7.0 to -10.0%
TOTAL SPOT -7.0 to -11.0% -2.0 to -5.0%
Furthermore, TVB estimates that total 2008 spot revenues will decline 7.1% over last year, instead of coming in flat as was forecast in September.
TVB President TVB Chris Rohrs said, “Due to the unprecedented economic developments of recent months, we reached out to all of our input sources and asked them to review the projections they gave us last summer. These are not happy numbers to report, but they are the new reality. We take seriously our obligation to our Member Stations to give them the most accurate road map as they work through their planning.”
Mr. Rohrs said that ultimately the 2009-10 landscape will be shaped by consumer confidence and spending, energy and food prices, debt and credit problems, the real estate market and the performance of the incoming Obama Administration. Key categories would be automotive, political, retail, telecom and financial.
TVB estimates — derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research — represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation. The not-for-profit Television Bureau of Advertising is the trade association of local television broadcasters. Its members include television broadcast groups, advertising sales rep firms, and over 600 individual television stations.